The Keystone Province and the Political Ship of State

 

A photo of the MB Legislature/Manitoba Legislative Assembly

All right, I'm differently motivated. But that's not why we're here, is it.

We are about 15 months(3) away from an election at the provincial level here in Keystone (1). I've heard a rumor (unconfirmed, don't ask) that the right is about to make a move. This move is one I've been watching for, but I didn't write it down, so, fair ball, it's not mine. 

Fine.

So here's the thing. I've been watching a summary of the data for months, and it reflects a reality that most of us are probably aware of. Even if some of us would never say it out loud. Keeping your chin up, as they say.

The Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba is going to lose this next election, possibly badly. The result may not end up being an historic loss (or historic win, depending on what colour your glasses are), but it is currently, statistically, a potential major victory for the Manitoba New Democratic Party.

And yes, in spite of having the best chance they have had in essentially 30 years, the Liberal Party (of Manitoba) is not going to "come up the middle". Or the flank. Or really at all. Sorry.(4)

In the meantime the PCMP (that seems cumbersome), has changed captains in an effort to at least give the impression of change. Out with the old. In with the new. This here is a brand new ship.

They then proceeded to attempt to reintroduce a legislative agenda (admittedly revised, watered, and renamed) that essentially signaled a desire to keep the ship moving in the same direction. In the mean time, hospitals are showing strain due to cuts and shortages. Schools are showing strain due to cuts and shortages. Ambulances are showing strain due to cuts and shortages. Roads are showing strain due to cuts and shortages. Mental health systems are showing strain due to cuts and shortages.

In case you need me to say it clearly: austerity is bad for people who don't have wealth. That's a whole different subject, really. Lets not get distracted.

While we've changed captains, we haven't changed crew, or executive, or mission, or even, really, direction. We're still pursuing an agenda of reduced public services - in a province where most people will be surprised to learn they can't afford to buy them themselves (hint: that's why we started doing public services). You think you can afford to pay for an MRI, or at least you figure you'll find the money somehow. You won't.

Importantly, the new captain is NOT NOTICIBLY MORE CHARISMATIC than their predecessor. In fact, they've been a bit of a smelly shoe. You know how it is. You go hiking. You think you're great. You go in to your mate's cottage for tea (or beverage of your choice, no judgment). And you take your shoes off. And you realize, that smell? It's you.

The shoe has started to smell. If you're me, you've been holding your nose for a while now, but you all know how I roll. The rumor(5) is that another change of captains may be in the works. A new pair of shoes (but if you don't change your socks...). A new course? Not unheard of.

My guess is the PCMP Ship (ship of PCMP?) has about 6 months to pull it off. Later than that and we're in the period where you should be presenting and defending your policy, attacking and eroding your competition's legitimacy as an alternative at the same time. Not making introductions (Dear Dougald...). Admittedly, this is a rough guess and not based on any real data. Call it a hunch.

Can they do it? Risky. Very risky.

Can they afford not to? Not unless gobs of people are lying to many different pollsters(2).

This blog post is, at best opinion. Your millage may vary. I encourage you to do your own research. Please use more than Google to do that research.

(1) We're also very shortly having a civic election here in Ol'Windy. Civic elections being mostly about picking the most popular failed business person from your community to "be in charge", don't matter (to me). We're not New Amsterdam.

(2) Please don't @ me about stupid American Presidential Elections. We all have our burdens to carry. <eye role>

(3) I'm not convinced there won't be some jiggery-pokery at the last moment on the date. In theory it's legislated, but so was the last one. And we all saw how that went. Everything else here is based on the assumption this election doesn't move.

(4) I am not interested in talking about the Green party. You can't make me! Get your own blog!

(5) unsubstantiated, single source, hearsay